Fantasy Football: Wide Receivers to Fade
Good players in subpar situations are too common in the NFL. This article outlines wide receivers that I’m fading at their current rank. It doesn’t mean that I don’t like the receivers, I just would prefer other players in their range. I’m not avoiding any of them and would happily draft them if they fall.
Chris Olave
Chris Olave is currently being drafted as the WR10. The Saints are projected to be in the bottom third of points scored this year and will have a new playcaller. Since 2021, the offenses that Kubiak has been involved in, have finished 18th, 16th, and 30th in team pass rate. The Saints were 17th in pass rate last year so I’m not expecting a huge change in the style of offense. Olave finished 15th among receivers in target share (23.7%), 14th in targets, and 7th in air yards. All signs that Olave is a very good receiver. However, Olave was 67th in yards after contact per reception.
Olave is 6 feet tall and 187 pounds. He’s not going to be a player that can physically dominate games. His smaller build limits his ceiling as a fantasy receiver which has been reflected by him never scoring over 25 points in a game. I want my WR1 to be a guy that can single-handedly win me a week and Olave has yet to show he can do that. Derek Carr has shown he can support a WR1 in fantasy, but only when he has been protected. The Saints have a bottom ten Offensive line and Carr is not a QB that excels under pressure. Olave is a safe WR but lacks the ceiling I want in my WR1. I’d rather take a chance on players like London, Aiyuk, and Moore.
Jaylen Waddle
Waddle is a great receiver on a great offense. But, he has to play with Tyreek Hill. As long as Tyreek Hill and his 30% target share are playing, Waddle has a limited ceiling. Waddle posted a 22% target share last year, which was 24th among wide receivers. In his two seasons playing with Tyreek, he averaged 14.19 and 15.25 points per game. He’ll continue to earn targets and have some great fantasy weeks, but he’s the WR2 on his team and is going as WR16. Last year, the WR16 in points per game averaged 15 points. This is right in line with what Waddle has done.
However, this is a range where players around him simply have much higher ceilings. I think Waddle is a great player and is going to have a good year but shouldn’t be expected to finish as a top-12 receiver. Players like DJ Moore, Nico Collins, and DK Metcalf are all receivers going after Waddle that have a much better chance to finish top 12. Fading at the current price but happy to draft at any discount.
Malik Nabers
Nabers is a very exciting prospect who dominated in his last college season and is now ranked as WR25. Going top ten in the NFL draft is no small feat. But going top ten often means joining a bad team. The Giants 2023 season was a dumpster fire of bad luck and underperforming players. However, head coach Brian Daboll is considering taking over play-calling duties, and Daniel Jones will be back from injury along with stud offensive lineman Andrew Thomas. But will any of this matter? The Giants are still projected to be a bottom 5 offense and have a bottom 3 offensive line. A QB coming back from an ACL tear that has still yet to prove he’s worth his lucrative contract is not an environment I’d expect a rookie WR to excel in.
Rookie WRs have not been a promising fantasy bet until more recent years with the likes of Chase, Jefferson, and Nacua. However, they all joined good situations. The environment is going to hold Nabers back more than anything else. Nabers has the talent to overcome bad situations but it’s going to result in a very low floor receiver. WR25 is too risky for me when players like Higgins, Kirk, and Flowers are going behind him.
Tank Dell
Tank showed a ton of promise in his rookie season. Excluding the game he left early due to injury, he averaged over 16 points per game. He now goes as WR32 which seems low given his rookie numbers. However, the Texans added Stefon Diggs to the receiver room as well as signing a good receiving RB in Joe Mixon. Diggs has been a fantasy monster for the last few years before experiencing regression this last season. Even with struggles down the stretch, Diggs still averaged over 16ppg. He will heavily impact Dell as the veteran leader of the receiving room while he plays on a one-year “prove you still got it” deal.
On top of that, Dell is only 5’10 165 pounds. This is incredibly small for a receiver and suggests he’s a player who is going to constantly deal with injuries throughout his career. While still recovering from his leg injury, the Texans have no reason to rush him back as long as Nico Collins and Diggs are healthy. I see Dell taking a back seat to the other two receivers and being used as more of a big-play receiver than a volume hog. Once fully healthy, Dell will be a boom/bust receiver as the third option on a good offense. Still, I don’t hate his rank among wide receivers, but I’d rather have players ranked near him with more solidified roles like Chris Godwin, James Conner, or Dalton Kincaid.
Cade Grogan