A Passive Approach to the NFL Offseason: Will the Falcons Regret This?
In March 2024, the Atlanta Falcons made headlines by signing veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a front-loaded, 4-year, $180 million contract with $100 million guaranteed. This move aimed to stabilize the Falcons’ quarterback position for the first time since 2021. However, this stability quickly became uncertain when the Falcons unexpectedly selected promising rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. out of Washington in the NFL Draft just a month later. This decision immediately generated controversy, fueling tension within the organization and frustration among the fanbase.
Although the offseason brought some ease as the Falcons’ training camp hype was at an all-time high, Cousins’ tenure with the Falcons was marked by significant inconsistency. It began with a disappointing loss to the Steelers, followed by a last-minute comeback victory against the eventual Super Bowl champion, the Philadelphia Eagles. Cousins accumulated nearly 800 yards and 8 touchdowns over two impressive games against the Buccaneers, turning heads and captivating the Atlanta fanbase. This surge propelled the Falcons to a promising 6-3 record and a comfortable lead in the NFC South. Things were looking up, but unfortunately, Cousins’ performance suddenly fell off. This was highlighted by a four-game losing streak during which he threw zero touchdowns and eight interceptions, ultimately causing the Falcons to fall out of playoff contention and epitomizing his turbulent season.
As a result, Falcons fans and local media, desperate for consistent quarterback play, began advocating for Penix Jr. to replace Cousins. With only three games remaining in the season, Penix Jr. finally took over as the starting quarterback. Despite finishing with a 1-2 record, Penix Jr.’s encouraging performances rejuvenated the fanbase and solidified his role as the starter heading into the 2025 season. Now, with another $50 million guaranteed to Cousins and only two draft picks within the top 100 for the 2025 draft, a crucial question arises: Will the Falcons squander their rebuilding years of key rookie contracts?
In the past four drafts, the Falcons have invested heavily in offensive players, using top-10 picks on TE Kyle Pitts, WR Drake London, RB Bijan Robinson, and now QB Michael Penix Jr., all of whom remain on rookie contracts. However, the guaranteed money owed to Cousins and the loss of their third and fifth-round picks (via trade for EDGE Matthew Judon and tampering violations related to Cousins, respectively) severely limited Atlanta’s flexibility this offseason. As a result, key departures like Drew Dalman and Grady Jarrett were replaced with inexpensive depth options. Atlanta notably abstained from making any significant first-day signings during free agency.
Other teams with quarterbacks on rookie contracts, such as the Bears, Panthers, and Patriots, began the 2025 offseason with lots of cap space and abundant draft capital, enabling them to pursue impactful free agent signings and significant trades aggressively. While it might seem more practical for the Falcons to wait until 2026 – when they gain flexibility to move on from Cousins’ contract and regain a full slate of draft picks – this conservative strategy risks losing valuable time from Penix Jr.’s affordable 4-year, $23 million rookie deal. Additionally, the looming extensions of London and Robinson, following breakout seasons, move even closer, putting additional strain on the team’s salary cap management and long-term plans.
Only time will tell whether the Falcons’ cautious approach to the 2025 offseason will haunt them or if General Manager Terry Fontenot will even get the opportunity to utilize the replenished resources and cap space in 2026, given that his job could be on the line. Ultimately, Atlanta’s passive strategy could cost them critical playoff experience and remove cap space flexibility once their recent draft picks receive contract extensions, leaving Falcons fans questioning if their cautious approach was worth the risk.