Will the Jacksonville Jaguars be Super Bowl contenders?
Coming off an AFC South title and wild card win, the Jacksonville Jaguars are an intriguing team next season. Are they Super Bowl contenders?
One of the biggest surprises of the 2022 NFL season was the Jacksonville Jaguars. After hiring Doug Pederson and splurging in spending over free agency, it was expected the Jaguars would improve from their 3-14 record in 2021. However, they weren’t expected to win the AFC South and win a playoff game, but they did.
That begs the question of what is next for the Jacksonville Jaguars? With Trevor Lawrence still in his rookie contract window entering his third season the best time to be aggressive is now. The question is whether their roster is in a position to contend for a Super Bowl next year?
At first glance that answer is yes. With Calvin Ridley stepping into this offense next season, Trevor Lawrence has the weapons he needs to take yet another step and solidify himself as one of the very best quarterbacks in this league.
Meanwhile, defensively this is a unit that was very good last season and still has room to improve.
With that being said, let’s go position by position and breakdown what this team needs from specific position groups and players to fulfill their potential next season.
All free agent and contract details are found on Spotrac.
Quarterback
Having Trevor Lawrence under center on a rookie contract is the biggest thing the Jaguars have going for them. Lawrence came into the league viewed as a generational type of prospect. He struggled his rookie season, but he looked significantly better this season in a much better coaching situation.
In an AFC stacked with quarterback talent, Lawrence elevating his game to an MVP candidate caliber is going to be the biggest X factor for the Jaguars next season.
That sounds like a big ask but with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen leading the other main contenders in the conference Lawrence needs to play near that level to give them the best chance of coming out of the AFC.
Running Back
After getting drafted in the first round in 2021, Travis Etienne unfortunately missed his rookie season with a foot injury. Etienne had a good season this season as he finished in the top ten in rushing yards in the regular season with 1,120 yards.
For next season Etienne staying healthy will be key for the Jaguars.
Wide Receivers
In Lawrence’s rookie season one of the biggest issues was a lack of weapons for him to throw to. Since then they have prioritized adding weapons to the offense and have done an excellent job of doing it.
In particular in the 2022 offseason they were aggressive in bringing receivers. They signed Christian Kirk to a four year $72 million deal and Zay Jones to a 3 year $24 million deal.
They were criticized for these contracts at the time, in particular the Kirk deal. Kirk was 13th in the NFL in receiving yards with 1,108.
While it was fair to criticize the deal at the time as it expensive deal, I think this season has shown it was a worth it. building a receiving core is more valuable in todays game than its ever been and Kirk has been a big part of turning around the Jaguars passing attack.
Zay Jones has also been a good addition to this offense. Jones projects to be the third option at receiver for the Jaguars next season, which bodes well as Lawrence Will have a plethora of options to throw to.
One of the biggest reasons for Jaguars fans to feel good about where they are going headed into next season is the addition of Calvin Ridley.
Ridley is someone who can step into this offense and be a true number one receiver. The last time Ridley played a full season he was tied for fourth in the NFL in receiving yards with 1,374 yards in 2020.
Ridley missed a large chunk of the 2021 season after stepping away to focus on his mental health. He then was suspended for the 2022 season for betting.
He most likely won’t be the same player he once was right out of the gate, but him joining this offense raises their ceiling quite a bit. Him getting better throughout the season and reaching an elite level by the end of the season will be pivotal for them.
Tight End
One of the biggest offseason decisions for the Jaguars will be whether to resign Evan Engram. He was a valuable addition to the offense as he was fourth for tight ends in the NFL with 766 yards in the regular season.
After last offseason’s big spending they are $32 million over the salary cap heading into the offseason. Thus, bringing back Engram may require them to restructure a lot of contracts to free up money.
Offensive Line
The Jaguars have a pretty clear strategy for building their offensive line and that is with a value placed on pass protection over run blocking. Last season they were tied for tenth in pass blocking grade and tied for 30th in run blocking grade.
Starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor is a free agent. I’m expecting the Jaguars to let him walk and have Walker Little, a 2021 second rounder slide into a starting role.
The Jaguars don’t necessarily need elite play from their offensive line to make a deep playoff run next season. However, staying healthy at the position next season will be important.
Edge rushers
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense as a whole was pretty solid last season and had some good performances in big games. However, for this team to fulfill its potential next season they need to improve in a number of different areas of their defense.
Edge rusher is one of those areas. The Jaguars have invested a lot of draft capital into edge rushers, perhaps more than any other team and they need some of those investments to pay off in a big way next season.
Josh Allen was the seventh overall pick in 2019 and has developed into a very good player. He has improved every season of his career, including a phenomenal season this year.
The biggest x-factor for this Jaguars defense will be last year’s number one overall pick. Travon Walker was a selection that was criticized by many at the time because of his lack of pass rush production at Georgia. Walker showed flashes his rookie season, but it’s essential that he takes a leap and becomes a more consistently dominant pass rusher in his second season.
Interior defensive line
The top three snap getters in the Jaguars interior defensive line rotation are all back in Roy Robertson-Harris, Davon Hamilton, and Folorunso Fatukasi. They all should be a big part of the rotation once again.
The Jacksonville Jaguars likely won’t need to make any big investments into interior defensive line this offseason, apart from perhaps adding a depth piece. Adam Gotkis and Corey Peters both got above 250 snaps in this defense last year and are free agents, so bringing them back on cheap deals should be a priority.
Linebackers
Linebacker is another area where the Jaguars need their current young players to improve for next season.
Foyesade Oluokun was apart of their big free agency class last offseason as they brought him in on a 3 year $45 million deal. He was good for them last season and will take up one of the starting linebacker spots.
The other starting linebacker spot will be between two second year players and the Jaguars need one of them to step up.
Devin Lloyd was a first round pick in last years draft and many saw him as the best linebacker in the class. He had some struggles as a rookie though and even lost his starting role for a couple of games. If he can turn it around and show why he was a first round pick in his second year that’ll provide a big boost to this defense.
The other second year player who could win the job is Chad Muma, a third rounder in last years draft. Muma is talented enough to be a quality starting linebacker in this league and he’ll have a chance to prove that next season.
Corners
The biggest area the Jacksonville Jaguars will need to address this offseason is the secondary. In todays game and especially in an AFC stacked with good quarterbacks it’s essential to have good depth in the secondary to combat that.
Tyson Campbell, a second round pick in 2021 had a good season and will likely come into the year as their top corner.
Darius Williams came in from the Chargers after signing a 3 year $30 million deal. He had some struggles and bounced around from playing in the slot and outside corner. He had more success playing on the outside, so I anticipate that is the plan for next year as of right now.
So, it’s not like their corner situation is a disaster by any means, but bringing in another corner or two should be their main priority this offseason.
Safeties
Rashawn Jenkins and Andre Cisco were the starting safeties for the Jaguars last season. Both of them will be back and they could go into next year with them as the starters.
However, if they can upgrade without spending too much they should look into that. In particular at box safety, which is Jenkins’ role who graded out at 88th out of 97 safeties.
In the draft if the Jaguars can add a player like Brian Branch to this secondary, who was super reliable playing primarily in the slot at Alabama would be great value.
Whole Picture
Headed into this offseason Jacksonville Jaguars fans should feel good about where this team is. After the spending spree from last offseason they likely won’t be able to make any big splashes this offseason as they are $32 million over the cap.
However, the good news for them is they’ll have Calvin Ridley joining their offense next season which elevates their ceiling quite a bit.
Defensively, they’re already a pretty solid unit and they are banking on their young players improving to turn them into a Super Bowl level defense.
So, while it’s a stacked AFC with Pat Mahomes’ Chiefs, Joe Burrow’s Bengals, and Josh Allen’s Bills I do think the Jacksonville Jaguars are still very much one of the contenders to come out of the AFC next season.
