Are NFL Coaches Still Too Scared on Fourth Down?
In a league increasingly driven by analytics and win probabilities, the question remains — are NFL coaches still too conservative on fourth down? While a handful of teams have embraced aggressive decision-making, many others continue to play it safe, even when the data says otherwise. The numbers paint a clear picture: NFL coaches leave expected points on the field every Sunday by choosing to punt or kick field goals in favorable go-for-it situations.
The Analytics: When Should Teams Go for It?
According to data from rbsdm.com (Running Backs Don’t Matter), teams should go for it on 4th and 1 almost anywhere past their own 40-yard line. The math becomes even more favorable when inside opponent territory.
- In 2023, teams converted 4th and 1 at a 71.3% rate league-wide (Pro Football Reference).
- Yet only 48.6% of those chances were actually attempted, with most teams opting to punt or kick.
- A 4th-and-1 decision at midfield adds +3.2% win probability on average (rbsdm.com).
“If you’re not going for it on 4th and short near midfield, you’re handing the opponent hidden points. It’s that simple.” — Ben Baldwin, NFL analytics expert
- Show how conversion drops from 71% (4th & 1) to around 45% (4th & 5), emphasizing how high-percentage short-yardage plays are ignored.
Who’s Getting It Right?
Some coaches are embracing analytics and reaping the rewards. In 2023, the Detroit Lions led the league with 41 fourth down attempts, converting 29 (70.7%). Dan Campbell’s risk-taking wasn’t just for show — it directly contributed to their 12-win season and NFC Championship appearance.
Similarly, the Philadelphia Eagles used their unstoppable “tush push” formation to convert 4th-and-short at an incredible 90% rate. Nick Sirianni leaned into math and muscle, and the results speak for themselves.
Top 5 Teams in 4th Down Attempts – 2023:
| Team | Attempts | Conversions | Rate |
| Detroit Lions | 41 | 29 | 70.7% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 36 | 26 | 72.2% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 34 | 22 | 64.7% |
| Buffalo Bills | 33 | 25 | 75.8% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 31 | 21 | 67.7% |
(Source: ESPN Team Stats, 2023)
Who’s Playing Scared?
At the other end of the spectrum, teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets were far less aggressive, despite needing offensive sparks. Pittsburgh attempted only 17 fourth downs, converting just 8 (47.1%). Their refusal to go for it arguably cost them playoff positioning in multiple close games.
The Jets, meanwhile, punted six times on 4th-and-2 or shorter from plus territory — all resulting in opponent scoring drives (NFL Next Gen Stats).
“You can’t win games in this league by being scared of failure. The numbers tell you when to be bold. Too many coaches still ignore that.” — Warren Sharp, NFL analyst
Side-by-Side: Fourth Down Attempts (Aggressive vs. Conservative Teams)
Does It Change the Outcome?
Yes. According to FiveThirtyEight, in games decided by one score or less, teams that attempted at least two fourth-down conversions won 62% of the time. Teams that didn’t attempt any? Just 43%.
- Example: The Chargers under Brandon Staley went for it 34 times in 2021 and had a +6.1% cumulative win probability gain, despite media backlash when individual plays failed (rbsdm.com).
Conclusion: Are We Seeing a Shift?
We’re slowly seeing the NFL change — but not fast enough. While coaches like Campbell, Sirianni, and McDaniel trust the numbers, others still play not to lose. As front offices grow more analytics-savvy, the pressure on conservative coaching will rise. The next evolution isn’t in schemes — it’s in decision-making.
And it starts on 4th down.
Hunter Kirkhope is an experienced sports data analyst with a strong background in scouting and live data collection. He currently works as a Live Data Analyst at Sports Info Solutions (SIS), where he scouts collegiate football athletes and writes detailed scouting reports based on performance analysis. His expertise includes collecting and analyzing real-time data from USFL games and Division I college football programs, including the University of Akron, Ohio State University, and the University of Pittsburgh.
Hunter’s work at SIS includes providing valuable insights to optimize team performance and inform strategic decisions using industry-standard tools such as Banjo and Connect Teams. He has demonstrated his analytical skills by tracking live statistics for March Madness 2024 and 2025 games and completing a sports analytics certification course through a mock college football game evaluation.
In addition to his professional experience, Hunter has a strong educational foundation in sports analytics and data science. He is pursuing a degree in Sports Data Analytics and Statistics at the University of Akron, where he has excelled in courses like Programming for Data Science, Survival Analytics, Statistical Data Management, and Advanced Statistical Computing. He has also competed in the 2023 and 2024 Cleveland Cavaliers Hackathons, applying his data analysis skills in a competitive environment.
Hunter’s background includes managing game-day operations and logistics as part of the Akron Facilities Staff, as well as serving as the Head Field Crew Manager for the Twinsburg Baseball League. His experience in coordinating events, managing personnel, and maintaining professional environments reflects his strong leadership and operational skills.
Hunter’s technical proficiency includes working with tools like SAS, SPSS, R, Python, C++, and Matlab, along with a deep understanding of sports data collection and performance analysis. His analytical approach and hands-on experience make him a valuable asset in the field of sports analytics and scouting.