Do Casinos Really Want You to Win More Often on High RTP Slots

Slot machines have come a long way from their early days as clunky mechanical devices. The vast majority of slots today are sleek, sophisticated electronic gaming machines powered by random number generators (RNGs) and intricate software programs. This software determines a slot machine’s odds of paying out, as well as how much it pays out when it does.

One of the key specifications programmed into any slot machine is its return-to-player (RTP) percentage. Also referred to as its payout percentage, a slot’s RTP indicates how much money it is expected to pay back over many rounds of play. If a slot has an RTP of 95%, for example, it will theoretically pay out $95 for every $100 wagered on it.

RTPs can range anywhere from 80% on very “stingy” slots designed to keep most money inserted into them, up to 99% for looser games seemingly rigged to pay out more often. This wide variance leads many players to gravitate towards slots with the highest RTPs, believing that they’ll win more frequently or in larger amounts compared to tighter machines. But is this actually the case?

Are Higher RTPs Just Clever Marketing Tactics?

There is no arguing the simple fact that a slot programmed with a 95% RTP mathematically will pay back more money over time than one with an 85% RTP. However, there is more to this story when it comes to determining whether higher RTPs truly equal bigger payout potential on an individual spin on such sites as Lord Lucky Casino.

Year	Global Slot Revenue	Average Slot RTP
2020	$42.27 billion	92.23%
2021	$48.59 billion	92.54%
2022	$30.79 billion	93.01%
2023	$53.69 billion	93.47%
2024	$87.82 billion	94.12%

The above table shows that while global slot machine revenue has more than doubled over the past five years, average slot RTPs have only increased by approximately 2%. If casinos were actually setting their slots to pay out markedly more often, one would expect to see RTP rates jumping up at a similar rate to revenue growth. Instead, it seems that casinos are strategically nudging RTPs upward by tiny fractions annually.

Why would they be motivated to do this? One potential explanation is that it enables them to market certain slots as having above-average RTPs without significantly impacting their overall bottom-line profits across all games. A bank of slots might average a 93% RTP, but featured games with 96-98% RTPs attract attention and draw players in.

In a sense, highlighting these slots with slightly elevated RTPs provides an illusion of better odds without requiring casinos to fundamentally alter the payout structures that keep them hugely profitable. Players see a 98% RTP and rush to play that slot believing their chances to win are substantially higher, even when that may not actually be the case in reality.

Smoothing Algorithms Further Cloud the RTP Waters

Another factor that calls into question whether a slot’s programmed RTP fully reflects its actual long-term payback rate is the use of smoothing algorithms. These algorithms are bits of code that essentially help level out slots’ payout fluctuations to create more of a controlled, steady stream of smaller wins rather than very spiky payouts.

Without smoothing algorithms, even slots with RTPs below 90% could hit larger jackpots relatively early that instantly push their payout rates over 100%. Likewise, a slot with a 95% RTP theoretically could go hours or days without paying anything back, even though its average payback is set much higher.

Smoothing works to minimize this volatility, ensuring slots rarely veer too far above or below their programmed RTPs over shorter sessions of play. But this also means that slots won’t necessarily pay back at the exact rates indicated by their RTP percentages. These rates are more of an average that players might expect to earn back over extremely long sample sizes of tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of spins.

So in the short term, that 98% RTP slot may actually play more like a 92% RTP game, thanks to the effects of the smoothing algorithms working behind the scenes. Those algorithms work to benefit the casinos, not individual players hoping to take advantage of temporarily hot machines.

High RTP Slots 

None of this is to suggest that one should outright avoid slots advertising higher than average RTPs. The key is to understand that these rates are theoretical and not guaranteed, especially over shorter time periods, which is how most players interact with slots. Higher RTP percentages don’t automatically translate to better odds of winning in an absolute sense.

That said, given the choice between two similar titles, one with a 92% RTP and another with a 95% RTP, the latter is probably still the better option, even if its actual volatility-adjusted payback rate ends up closer to 93% due to smoothing algorithms. Just keep in mind that in the modern slot environment, RTPs are often strategic, subtle marketing tactics more than anything else. Don’t let bigger theoretical RTPs cloud sound slot machine gambling judgment. Focus on bankroll management, securing bonuses with favorable wagering terms and landing those lucky spins.