Chicago Bears: Exploring Their Options with the Number One Pick

With the Chicago Bears landing the number one overall pick they are in store for a very exciting offseason.

One of the most intriguing teams headed into this offseason is the team with the worst record this season.  Not only do the Chicago Bears have the top pick, but they also have over $100 million in cap space.

There are so many possibilities for them this offseason. Today we’re going to focus on their options for the number one overall pick and specifically at quarterback.

Chicago Bears- Option Number One: Trade down, build the roster around Justin Fields

With Justin Fields’ performances in the second half of the season he took significant strides towards becoming a franchise quarterback.  Fields will be entering just his third season in the NFL and still has plenty of room to grow.

With that in mind they can use the number one overall pick as a way to build the talent of the Chicago Bears’ roster around Fields.

Players like Jalen Carter and Will Anderson Jr. are exceptional prospects who have great careers in the NFL ahead of them.  However, there’s way too much value in trading down to teams looking for a quarterback to stand pat and select one of them number one overall.

To see the value they could get for trading down, let’s take a look at trades from past drafts:

Dating back to the 2012 draft, there’s been seven trades involving a top 10 pick, in which the team trading up selected a quarterback.  Here is all them:

2021 49ers trade up for Trey Lance

SF- No. 3 ovr

Mia- No. 12 ovr, 2022 1st, 2022 3rd, 2023 1st

2018 Jets trade up for Sam Darnold

NYJ- No. 3 ovr

Ind-  No. 6 ovr, No. 37 (2nd), No. 49 ovr (2nd), 2019 2nd

2018 Bills trade up for Josh Allen

Buf- No. 7 ovr, No. 255 ovr (7th)

TB- No. 12 ovr, No. 53 ovr (2nd), No. 56 ovr (2nd)

2017 Bears trade up for Mitch Trubisky

Chi- No. 2 ovr

SF- No. 3 ovr, No. 67 ovr (3rd), No. 111 ovr (4th), 2018 3rd

2016 Rams trade up for Jared Goff

LAR- No. 1 ovr, No. 113 ovr (4th), No. 177 (6th)

Ten- No. 15 ovr, No. 43 ovr (2nd), No. 45 ovr (2nd), No. 76 ovr (3rd), 2017 1st, 2017 3rd

2016 Eagles trade up for Carson Wentz

Phi- No. 2 ovr, 2017 cond. 5th (turns into compensatory 4th if Browns receive one)

Cle- No. 8 ovr, No. 77 ovr (3rd), No. 100 ovr (4th), 2017 1st, 2018 2nd

2012 Washington trades up for Robert Griffin III

Was- No. 2 ovr

Stl- No. 6 ovr, No. 39 ovr (2nd), 2013 1st, 2014 1st

There’s a lot to unpack out of these trades. These types of trades depend on the draft class, in specific the quality of the quarterback prospects. However, this gives an idea of what the Chicago Bears should be expecting to get in a trade back scenario.

This quarterback class is headlined by Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud.  There’s still things that can change in the pre draft process, but as of now Young looks slightly more likely to be the first quarterback off the board.  Although, Stroud’s performance in the Peach Bowl did tighten the race. Thus, it wouldn’t be a shock if there’s teams who prefer him over Young.

Will Levis and Anthony Richardson are two other quarterbacks that will be highly discussed coming into draft season.  They are both seen as more project type of quarterbacks.  What teams think of them can have an impact of how much value the Bears number one overall pick holds.  

If quarterback needy teams are believers in one or both of them they may not be interested in trading up to number one when they can instead just stand pat and get a quarterback they like.  However, if teams aren’t high on them, they’ll be much more likely to attempt to trade up to try to secure the quarterback they want.

Who would trade up?

Obviously in order to trade back you need a team willing to sacrifice assets to trade up.  So, let’s take a look at potentially quarterback needy teams and their likelihood to trade up:

Houston Texans (No. 2 & 12 ovr)

The Texans are in a good spot in their rebuild to invest in a quarterback. They may look to trade up from two to one to secure the quarterback they want and ensure no other teams jump in front of them.  This would be enticing for the Bears as they’d add any draft pick the Texans are willing to trade to them and still have their pick of any non-quarterback prospect.

Indianapolis Colts (No. 4 ovr)

The Colts haven’t been able to find a long-term solution at quarterback since Andrew Luck’s retirement, but they’re in position to do so this draft with the number four overall pick.  The Colts could be willing to offer an enticing package to the Bears for the top pick and moving down to fourth overall still gives them to chance to secure one of the draft’s top players.  This makes the Colts one of the main contenders to trade up.

Detroit Lions (No. 6 & 18 ovr)

With Jared Goff leading a very good Lions offense it seems unlikely that they’ll trade up for a quarterback.  It is something the Lions at least have to look into however due to the upside of landing a quarterback who can produce while on a rookie contract.

Las Vegas Raiders (No. 7 ovr)

After the Raiders benched Derek Carr for the last two games of the 2022 season it looks like his time leading the Raiders has come to an end.  If the Raiders like Young or Stroud enough they may be willing to make a big offer to the Chicago Bears for the top pick.

Atlanta Falcons (No. 8 ovr)

The Falcons took Desmond Ridder in the third round last season, but considering how long it took them to bench Marcus Mariota in favor of him this season it’s unlikely that they view him as a long-term solution at the position.  This puts them in the quarterback sweepstakes this draft.

Carolina Panthers (No. 9 ovr)

The Panthers could give Matt Corral a chance to prove himself next season after he was injured last season.  Given the fact that Corral was just a third round pick and the other quarterback option is Sam Darnold, the Panthers will certainly be interested in taking a quarterback this draft.

Tennessee Titans (No. 11 ovr)

Ryan Tannehill is still a solid quarterback who can win games, but the Titans may be entering a rebuilding phase.  If they do intend to rebuild, they could look into trading up for a quarterback this draft, although it is pretty unlikely.

New York Jets (No. 13 ovr)

The Jets are a very solid roster that with a good quarterback would be Super Bowl contenders.  They’re more likely to target established veteran options as they are ready to compete right now, however they could look to the draft for a long-term solution as well.

New England Patriots (No. 14 ovr)

With Mac Jones’ struggles last season the Patriots could be in the market for a quarterback.  In all likelihood they’ll give him another year as the starter.  Regardless, a trade from 14 to 1 is pretty unlikely, however it’s something that shouldn’t be completely ruled out.

Green Bay Packers (No. 15 ovr)

Rumors about Aaron Rodgers are swirling after their season-ending loss to the Lions on Sunday.  With 2020 first round pick Jordan Love in the fold it’s likely that he’ll be a starter in the case that Rodgers does retire.  That makes a trade up to number one with their bitter rivals very unlikely.

Washington Commanders (No. 16 ovr)

The Commanders are another team with a promising roster that could compete with the right quarterback.  There’s a few options currently on the roster like Carson Wentz, Taylor Heineke, and Sam Howell, however none of them are likely long-term solutions.  This makes a big trade up for the Commanders at least a possibility.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 19 ovr)

If Tom Brady leaves the Buccaneers either for another team or retirement, they’ll be in the market for a quarterback.  A trade up from playoff position all the way to number one overall, is unlikely however.

Looking through quarterback needy teams, it seems pretty likely that the top pick will have a lot of demand. The Chicago Bears could get some valuable assets if they chose to trade down.

My Verdict

As outlined, previous trades in past drafts combined with the demand amongst quarterback needy teams indicate the Chicago Bears could get a valuable package for the top overall pick.

This is the ideal scenario for the Bears.  As good as Jalen Carter and Will Anderson Jr. are landing one non-quarterback isn’t going to turn this roster from a bad one to a good one.  A trade down allows them to come away with a good player from this draft, while also adding additional picks.

Chicago Bears- Option Two: Trade Justin Fields and Draft Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud

Fields is a former first round pick who made big strides last season. However, the Chicago Bears do have to look into every option available to them.

While Fields improved throughout the season and made many defenses pay with his legs, he still has more improvement to make as a passer.  Throughout the season, he only recorded two games with 200+ passing yards. Plus, his passing grade from PFF for the season was 54.4, which is low.

It’s also important to keep in mind that the current regime in charge of the Bears in general manager Ryan Poles and head coach Matt Eberfleus weren’t the ones who drafted Fields.  This doesn’t necessarily mean they don’t like Fields, but it does mean they won’t be as compelled to ride with him as they weren’t the ones who drafted him.

Another thing to consider is the fact that drafting a new quarterback would restart the rookie quarterback contract cycle. Fields has two years plus a fifth year option on his contract, but a rookie quarterback would have four years plus a fifth year option.

Getting a quarterback on a rookie deal is very valuable as it allows you to devote more money to other positions on the roster before having to give a quarterback a big contract.

I’m sure this is something they are thinking about and if they like Young or Stroud enough it wouldn’t be a shock to see them draft one of them and trade Fields.

My Verdict

I believe that Fields will develop more as a passer with more experience and an improvement in his surrounding cast.  Thus, I would still choose to trade back, acquire assets, and build this team around the young quarterback.

However, it’s not often teams land the number one overall pick, so the Chicago Bears will be sure to do their homework on the quarterbacks in this draft before making their plan for how to best build this roster for the future.

Chicago Bears- Option Three: Stand pat at number one and select Jalen Carter or Will Anderson Jr.

Although it looks promising, there is a scenario that the Bears don’t get good trade offers. Teams may have too many concerns about Young and Stroud to be willing to give up valuable trade packages to move up.

In that scenario, there’s two compelling options for the Bears with the number one overall pick. Those are Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter and Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr.

Both players have very bright futures and would go a long way towards fixing the Bears’ defense.

My Verdict:

The best case scenario for the Chicago Bears is to land a big trade offer. That would give them valuable assets to build this team for the future.  If they don’t get good trade offers however it’s not all bad as they’d be adding a potential superstar.