2025 NFL Draft WR Prospect Analytics Report

The 2025 wide receiver class for the NFL Draft features a diverse blend of body types, athletic profiles, and projected draft capital. This report investigates key athletic and ranking metrics for 72 WR prospects through a combination of statistical analysis and visualizations. The analysis includes 40-yard dash times, player weight, calculated Speed Scores, and Overrated and Underrated Index metrics based on consensus draft rankings and player ratings.

Athleticism Overview: Weight vs. 40-Yard Dash with Speed Score Bubble

A Speed Score combines weight and 40-yard dash time to reflect true athletic explosiveness. A bubble plot mapping 40-yard times (Y-axis) against weight (X-axis), with bubble size representing Speed Score, was created to visualize this relationship across draft tiers.

Key Takeaways:

• Matthew Golden and Dont’e Thornton Jr. posted elite speed metrics relative to their size.
• Xavier Restrepo ran the slowest 40 (4.83) and appeared as an outlier on the plot.
• Mid-weight receivers (190–210 lbs) populated the densest section of the graph, showing that most prospects fall into a typical athletic build range.

Fastest WRs in the Class

Rank	Player	40YD Time
1	Matthew Golden	4.29
2	Chris Tyree	4.29
3	Dont’e Thornton Jr.	4.30
4	Monaray Baldwin	4.32
5	Chimere Dike	4.34

These times reflect elite-level speed, and all five players should be viewed as capable vertical threats. Golden and Tyree have the added benefit of combining speed with fluid acceleration and open-field agility. Baldwin and Dike, while smaller, offer immediate separation against man coverage.

Slowest WRs in the Class

Rank	Player	40YD Time
1	Xavier Restrepo	4.83
2	Kyle Ford	4.72
3	Xzavier Henderson	4.70
4	Josh Kelly	4.70
5	Julian Fleming	4.68

While 40-yard dash times are not the sole determinant of on-field effectiveness, subpar times in this range may limit a prospect’s vertical separation and reduce their utility in field-stretching roles. Fleming, in particular, has a profile built on size and toughness but may struggle to separate against NFL corners.

Heaviest and Lightest Receivers

Rank	Player	Weight (lbs)
1	Bru McCoy	230
2	Rashod Owens	230
3	Savion Williams	225
4	Kyle Ford	225
5	De’Corian Clark	220

These players often fit traditional X-receiver molds and are relied upon in contested catch situations.

Rank	Player	Weight (lbs)
1	Silas Bolden	160
2	Tez Johnson	165
3	LaJohntay Wester	167
4	Jimmy Horn Jr.	170
5	Monaray Baldwin	172

On the opposite end, the lightest receivers profile as shifty slot receivers or gadget players with strong yards-after-catch potential.

Speed Score Analysis

Speed Score adjusts a player’s 40-yard dash by their weight, rewarding players who carry their mass efficiently. The bubble chart created in the analysis plots weight against a 40-yard dash, with bubble size representing Speed Score and color indicating draft tier.

Players like Matthew Golden and Dont’e Thornton Jr. displayed elite size-adjusted speed, while smaller players with fast 40s naturally rank lower in Speed Score. The visualization clearly illustrates that several Day 2 or Day 3 receivers offer starter-level athleticism.

Overrated and Underrated Indexes

Two indices were calculated:

• Overrated Index = Player Rating – (100 – AVG Overall Rank)
• Underrated Index = (100 – AVG Overall Rank) – Player Rating

These highlight discrepancies between consensus rankings and player grades.

Most Overrated WRs

Rank	Player	Overrated Index
1	Corey Rucker	503.0
2	Ali Jennings	502.0
3	Frank Ladson Jr.	501.0
4	Chris Tyree	475.0
5	Brennan Presley	460.0

These players had higher ratings relative to their consensus average ranks—raising questions about whether production or reputation skewed evaluations.

Most Underrated WRs

Rank	Player	Underrated Index
1	Isaiah Bond	-55.0
2	Elic Ayomanor	-50.0
3	Jack Bech	-48.0
4	Jayden Higgins	-47.0
5	Tre Harris	-45.0

These players were consistently rated lower than their ranking would suggest. They may be primed to outperform expectations and should be targeted for teams seeking Day 2 or 3 value.

Speed Score by Draft Tier

A boxplot chart comparing Speed Scores by projected draft rounds shows some variation across tiers.

Tier Breakdown:

• Round 1 WRs showed strong consistency and median Speed Scores above the class average.
• Day 2 and Early Day 3 WRs had wide ranges, indicating variability in athleticism.
• Late Day 3 WRs had generally lower Speed Scores but with a few outliers.

This confirms that teams drafting in earlier rounds generally prioritize athletic efficiency, while later rounds may be more forgiving to technique-based or developmental receivers.

Conclusion

Overall, the 2025 WR class provides general managers with multiple archetypes, from explosive small-bodied slots to big-bodied perimeter targets. While traits like production and route running will heavily influence draft capital, athleticism remains a crucial differentiator. Matthew Golden, Dont’e Thornton Jr., and Chris Tyree stand out as explosive athletes. Conversely, players like Xavier Restrepo and Kyle Ford may face separation concerns due to lackluster speed.

The Overrated and Underrated Indexes provide insight into where evaluation biases may exist, helping refine prospect value beyond surface-level metrics. This analysis reinforces the notion that athletic value can be found outside the top 64 picks. Future scouting reports should incorporate additional metrics like route diversity, contested catch rate, and usage alignment to deliver a complete receiver evaluation.