The Resurgence of Running Backs: How Free Agency Success Could Reshape the Market and NFL Draft

In recent years, a growing narrative has emerged that running backs are no longer as valuable in the modern NFL and, as a result, shouldn’t be highly paid. As the league has shifted toward a pass-heavy approach, the running back position has been de-emphasized. Once the focal point of offenses, running backs have increasingly become complementary pieces rather than centerpieces. With teams finding greater efficiency in passing, rushing attempts have declined across the league.

However, while the running game is no longer the foundation of most offenses, it remains an essential component. This past season demonstrated how impactful running backs can be when placed in the right situation. Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs all changed teams and made a noticeable impact, with Barkley and Henry, in particular, elevating their offenses to new heights.

This reflects the evolving role of the running back position. The days of building an offense solely around the ground game are gone. Given that running backs are among the most dependent positions in all of sports, relying heavily on offensive line play and scheme, their standalone value has diminished. Teams can still find success by emphasizing the passing game, but last season proved that a strong running back can help unlock a new level of offensive efficiency.

The impact of these acquisitions is clear in the data. According to Sumer Sports, the addition of Derrick Henry helped the Ravens’ Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush jump from 0.01 to 0.09. Saquon Barkley’s arrival in Philadelphia increased the Eagles’ EPA per rush from 0.02 to 0.09. Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs helped improve the Packers’ EPA per rush from -0.07 to 0.01. These numbers highlight how a quality running back can enhance an offense, but they also underscore that success is not solely dependent on the back himself. Scheme and offensive line play are just as critical.

The Ravens, Packers, and Eagles all experienced changes along their offensive lines, and Philadelphia also introduced a new offensive coordinator. This reinforces the reality that while a running back can provide a boost, he alone cannot carry an offense, supporting infrastructure is essential. In today’s NFL, the running back position will not be the driving force of an offense, but it can be the piece that elevates a team from solid to good, good to great, or great to elite.

Conversely, when blocking and scheme do not align, even talented running backs can struggle. The Bears’ acquisition of D’Andre Swift is a prime example. While Swift played a key role in the Eagles’ rushing success in 2023, where they posted an EPA per rush of 0.02, his arrival in Chicago coincided with a steep decline in team rushing efficiency, dropping to -0.06. Swift’s personal EPA per rush plummeted from 0.01 with the Eagles to -0.15 with the Bears, per Sumer Sports. The stark contrast between the offensive lines and schemes of the two teams highlights how much these factors matter.

This further reinforces the idea that teams should prioritize building a strong offensive line and implementing a well-designed rushing scheme. A great scheme and line can allow almost any running back to be productive, but when an elite back is added to the mix, the offense reaches an even higher level. A prime example is the San Francisco 49ers’ acquisition of Christian McCaffrey in 2022. The 49ers already had a strong scheme and a solid offensive line, meaning they could have found success with a variety of backs. However, McCaffrey’s arrival took the offense to another level.

Given the impact of the 2024 free-agent running backs, we may see a shift in how teams value the position moving forward. While the running game may never regain its former prominence, it is unlikely to continue being disregarded as it has in recent years. This shift could start as early as this offseason.

Although this year’s free agency class lacks the star power of last year’s, teams can still find quality backs who can elevate their offenses. Players like Rico Dowdle, Aaron Jones, J.K. Dobbins, Najee Harris, A.J. Dillon, and Nick Chubb, if healthy, could form formidable backfield duos that help take offenses to the next level.

The impact of this free agency class will also be felt in the NFL Draft. With a strong running back class, we could see running backs come off the board earlier than in recent years. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty has the potential to be selected in the top 10, which would make him the first running back to go that high since Bijan Robinson in 2023. Additionally, North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton, along with Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, could all find themselves as first-round selections. If three running backs are taken in the first round, it would mark the first time that has happened since 2018.

This past season may signal a resurgence in the value of running backs, not in the traditional workhorse role, but as integral components that help complete an already well-structured offense. As teams reassess their approach, we could see the market for running backs rebound and their importance in roster building re-emphasized in the years to come.