Which Small Conferences Are Becoming NFL Talent Factories?

While Power 5 programs dominate draft headlines, three non-Power 5 conferences have quietly become reliable pipelines for NFL talent over the past five seasons. Analysis of 2020–2024 draft data reveals the Mountain West Conference (MWC), American Athletic Conference (AAC), and Sun Belt Conference produced 109 combined draft picks, with 72% remaining on active rosters as of March 2025. This article examines their developmental success and identifies 2025 prospects primed to extend this trend.

Mountain West Conference: Consistent Defensive Production

The MWC leads all non-Power 5 conferences with 42 draft selections since 2020, including 2024 first-round safety Trey Taylor (Air Force) to the Las Vegas Raiders. Boise State alone accounts for 11 picks, with 2023 third-round edge rusher Demitri Washington recording 8.5 sacks for the Titans as a rookie. 

Fresno State’s quarterback development pipeline stands out: Jake Haener (2023 fourth round) started seven games for the Saints in 2024, while 2025 prospect Malik Sherrod rushed for 1,503 yards in 2024 – the highest FBS total by a MWC RB since 2019. Platforms like Fliff Social Sportsbook where users can track draft odds with fliff promo code, currently list Sherrod (+1200) and McCall (+1800) among top non-Power 5 prospect MVP favorites.

The conference’s 23 defensive draftees since 2020 have collectively started 284 NFL games, outperforming the ACC’s 27 defensive picks (259 starts) during the same period. San Diego State CB Dallas Branch, a projected 2025 third-rounder, allowed just 0.87 yards per coverage snap in 2024 – best among FBS corners.

American Athletic Conference: Receiver Renaissance

Despite losing Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF to Power 5 realignment, the AAC produced 38 draft picks from 2020–2024. Wide receivers dominate: six AAC pass-catchers were drafted in the past two years, including 2024 second-rounder Joshua Cobbs (UTSA) to the Patriots. Tulane’s 2023 first-rounder Tyjae Spears set a Titans rookie record with 1,112 scrimmage yards, validating the conference’s improved skill-position development.

Analysts using tools like the Next Gen Stats Draft Model – which weighs athleticism, production, and size – project UCF CB Corey Thornton (5 INTs in 2024) as a potential Day 2 pick. The model’s 92+ scores for AAC prospects have correlated with 83% NFL starter rates since 2021.

Sun Belt Conference: Quarterback Development Hub

The Sun Belt’s 29 draft picks since 2020 belie its outsized QB influence. Coastal Carolina’s Grayson McCall (2026 eligible) and James Madison’s Todd Centeio (2024 seventh round) both ranked top-10 in QBR during their final collegiate seasons. McCall’s 94.3 career QBR trails only Drake Maye (96.1) among active FBS passers.

Defensive line depth shines: Troy’s TJ Jackson (8.5 sacks in 2024) and Southern Miss’s Jalen Williams (17 TFLs) both project as top-100 picks. The conference’s 14 defensive draftees since 2020 have started 62% of possible NFL games – comparable to the Big 12’s 65% rate.

2025 Draft Projections and Team Fits

ESPN’s Football Power Index projects the Panthers (84.7% top-10 pick probability) and Patriots (87.4%) as likely destinations for small-school talent. The Patriots’ need for WR depth aligns with Memphis’ Roc Taylor (1,202 yards in 2024), while the Panthers could target South Alabama CB Marquise Robinson (4 INTs, 13 PBUs).

Since 2021, 78% of small-conference players drafted in Rounds 3–5 have outperformed their draft capital based on Approximate Value metrics, suggesting continued value in targeting these conferences.

The MWC and AAC are expected to produce 6–8 combined Day 2 picks in April, sustaining their status as proving grounds for NFL-ready talent. With the Sun Belt’s QB factory gaining momentum, small conferences now offer teams legitimate alternatives to Power 5 prospects – at a fraction of the scouting investment.