Ranking the Current Favorites to be Selected First Overall in the 2026 NFL Draft
In the NFL, hope sometimes arrives disguised—as a slow, desperate slide down the standings. For a handful of franchises in 2025, the agony of defeat is already morphing into something strangely intoxicating: the limitless opportunity of the 2026 NFL Draft. By November, a grim but undeniable reality had set in for the Titans, Browns, Jets, Saints, and Raiders. Their postseason dreams are all but extinguished already. But for these five, every fresh loss now moves them a step closer to a potential franchise-altering No. 1 overall pick.
Which Team Will Be at the Top of the Board?
Let’s pull back the curtain on the carnage. Tennessee’s tailspin stands out like a siren in the night: at 1-8, the Nashville outfit has a staggering 36.6% probability of ‘winning’ the top draft slot for the second straight year. Last year, they selected former Florida quarterback Cam Ward first overall, and with the QB position locked in, another year spent at the top of the board could revitalize the fortunes at Nissan Stadium.
The Browns’ quarterback carousel continues to bewitch and bedevil a battered fanbase, while the Jets, who once teased a new era with the veteran Aaron Rodgers under center, now stumble through an identity crisis. New Orleans is caught in a post-Brees malaise, and Las Vegas? They’re haunted by a familiar cocktail of defensive frailty and offensive disarray.
One look at the NFL betting odds lists shows just how miserable each team’s outlook truly is. The latest NFL spreads and futures show that the Saints have the best hope of any of them to reach the postseason. But at odds of +7500, they still don’t really have much hope at all. But still, for each of them, the NFL’s ultimate consolation prize now beckons: a shot to reset, rebuild, and—if fate is feeling generous—resurrect.
But the draft, as ever, is a mystery wrapped in hype, and picking first can either crown you with brilliance or chain you to regret. Who are the three collegiate stars with the talent—and the résumé—to turn misfortune into rebirth? Here, then, is a forensic breakdown of the current favorites to be the first name called in 2026.
There’s something relentless about Tuscaloosa quarterbacks when the reload clicks. Ty Simpson, the latest in the Alabama QB dynasty, isn’t just thriving—he’s commanding. At 2,461 yards passing, 21 touchdowns, and a staggering one interception across ten games, his numbers leap off the stat sheet.
But watch him orchestrate Alabama’s offense and you’ll see something deeper: the precise rhythm of a field general immune to nerves, a poise that bends SEC defenders to his will. Simpson’s performance against LSU in early November—a grinding 277-yard, one-score epic marked by level-headed audacity—was a masterclass in clutch play.
He’s made the Crimson Tide’s offense his own, and Nick Saban’s successor, Kalen DeBoer, hasn’t missed a beat with Simpson’s hand on the tiller. What sets him apart isn’t only efficiency or ball security—though both are elite—but an uncanny command in high-leverage moments. His calm in chaos, coupled with a live arm and mobility, has propelled Alabama to an eight-game win streak and sent Simpson rocketing atop every major draft board.
NFL scouts are searching for “the next guy.” In Simpson, many see a readymade face of the franchise—a quarterback who won’t just survive the league’s pressures, but will shape them to his design.
Every so often, a program stirs from hibernation and demands attention. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is the soul of that American sports fable in 2025. Once confined to the Big Ten’s lower rungs, the Hoosiers—on the arm of this 6’5”, Miami-born wonder—are now an unbeaten leviathan, sprinting up the rankings and changing the script altogether.
Mendoza’s passage from overlooked to irresistible is pure gridiron storytelling. His 2,342 yards and 26 touchdowns (against only five picks) would shimmer in isolation, but especially do so in the context of Indiana’s historic rise. More than a big arm—though he has that, driving deep balls into impossible windows—he’s a creator, unafraid to use his legs when plays break down, as a six-touchdown (five passing, one rushing) mauling of Indiana State eloquently proved.
An 88.1 QBR, the fourth-highest in the country, records the facts. But it’s Mendoza’s ability to thread hope through a program’s veins that most excites NFL front offices, particularly those staring down years of quarterback purgatory. He is, in every way, a contemporary prototype—size, poise, improvisation—and perhaps the draft’s most tempting upside play for any team craving transformation.
Spend five minutes watching, and you will see precisely what makes Arvel Reese stand out. At 6’4” and 243 pounds, the Buckeye junior is a force of football nature—diagnosing, directing, and detonating plays at every layer of the field.
Numbers only hint at his value: 29 solo tackles, 6.5 sacks, and a stats sheet littered with tackles for loss. But it’s Reese’s brain as much as his brawn that catches the eye. No moment looks too big. He’s equally adept at knifing into backfields, dropping in coverage, or hounding quarterbacks with blitzes disguised until the snap. Watching him dismantle Penn State—a half dozen pressures, tackles that shut down drives—you sense this isn’t just a defensive player, but a field general in pads.
NFL coordinators are desperate for versatility and intelligence at the second level; Reese supplies both. For a club searching for defensive DNA at the top, he’s a sideline-to-sideline solution, an immediate plug-and-play captain.
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