What Rookie Quarterback has the best chance to succeed in the NFL in Year 1?

There were six quarterbacks selected in the first round this year and it would not surprise me if one of them ends up with a huge year. I am not sure who will have the best season, but Caleb Williams has the most talent. When I look at the players around them, I can see Caleb Williams having some growing pains, but I think the Bears can win now.

My predictions on the rookies:

Caleb Williams will have the best season of all quarterbacks. He will have some struggles, but the former USC Trojans rookie finishes winning 8 plus games.

Jayden Daniels, I feel he will struggle a bit as well. He will likely open the year as a starter, but he does not have a ton of help around him. Daniels is a big time prospect who will turn into a beast, but he will get banged up a bit trying to do too much early.

Drake Maye is a sleeper prospect, but I feel he will have the worst year of the guys who start. He will struggle and throw many interceptions. He plays in the toughest division of the first three picks, and will get a few wins, but needs more help.

JJ McCarthy could be the dark horse for the top quarterback. Many feel Sam Darnold will start, and if that is the case, it is good for McCarthy. He can watch Darnold play and then take over knowing the playbook and feeling more comfortable.

Bo Nix, I am not sure he will start, but if he does could he end up dominating in a Sean Payton offense? I would not count him out, because Drew Brees was a beast under Payton.

Michael Penix Jr.: Unless an injury happens, I am not sure we will see a lot of him, but if Cousins goes down with an injury, stay tuned, because he is a dog.

Let’s Look at the Best Rookie Quarterbacks ever

The title of the “best rookie year ever for a quarterback” is often debated among NFL fans and analysts, as it depends on the criteria used (e.g., statistics, team success, awards).

1. Dan Marino (1983)

• Team: Miami Dolphins
• Stats: 2,210 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 96.0 passer rating
• Highlights: Marino set several rookie records and led the Dolphins to a 12-4 record and the playoffs.

2. Ben Roethlisberger (2004)

• Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
• Stats: 2,621 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 98.1 passer rating
• Highlights: Roethlisberger went 13-0 as a starter during the regular season, leading the Steelers to a 15-1 record and an appearance in the AFC Championship Game.

3. Russell Wilson (2012)

• Team: Seattle Seahawks
• Stats: 3,118 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 100.0 passer rating
• Highlights: Wilson tied Peyton Manning’s rookie record for touchdown passes and led the Seahawks to the playoffs.

4. Cam Newton (2011)

• Team: Carolina Panthers
• Stats: 4,051 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 84.5 passer rating, 706 rushing yards, 14 rushing touchdowns
• Highlights: Newton set the rookie record for passing yards in a season and rushing touchdowns by a quarterback. He was named Offensive Rookie of the Year.

5. Andrew Luck (2012)

• Team: Indianapolis Colts
• Stats: 4,374 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 76.5 passer rating
• Highlights: Luck set the rookie record for passing yards in a season (since broken) and led the Colts to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth.

6. Dak Prescott (2016)

• Team: Dallas Cowboys
• Stats: 3,667 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 104.9 passer rating
• Highlights: Prescott led the Cowboys to a 13-3 record and was named Offensive Rookie of the Year.

7. Justin Herbert (2020)

• Team: Los Angeles Chargers
• Stats: 4,336 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 98.3 passer rating
• Highlights: Herbert set the rookie record for touchdown passes and total touchdowns (36). He was named Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Each of these quarterbacks had an outstanding rookie season, contributing significantly to their teams’ success and setting or breaking records along the way. Among these, Justin Herbert’s rookie season is particularly notable for his statistical achievements, while Ben Roethlisberger’s and Dak Prescott’s seasons are often highlighted for their impressive win-loss records and impact on their teams’ playoff runs.