Josh Allen is Overrated – And the Stats Prove It

Josh Allen just capped off his best statistical season with his first MVP award.28 touchdowns, 101.4 passer rating, and 3,731 yards while leading Buffalo to another AFC East title. The narrative is set: Allen has finally ascended to the NFL’s elite tier alongside Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. Case closed, right?

Not so fast. Strip away the MVP trophy and prime-time highlights, and a different picture emerges. One where Allen’s fundamental quarterbacking metrics lag behind the truly elite. One where his playoff track record reveals concerning patterns. And one where the supporting cast he’s blessed with makes his statistics look better than they actually are.

Take completion percentage for example. While Allen was winning MVP votes, Tua Tagovailoa was leading all quarterbacks at 70.8% completion since 2023. Allen? He was 24th in completion % in the 2024 regular season.

But it gets worse when you examine what happens when the stakes are highest. Allen’s career playoff completion percentage drops to just 64.6% – a stunning 8+ point decline from even average regular season accuracy. For context, that playoff number would have ranked 25th among starting quarterbacks during the 2024 regular season.

Even more damning: in 13 career playoff games, Allen has managed just a 100.0 passer rating – lower than his 2024 regular season MVP performance. This isn’t about small sample size anymore. This is about a quarterback who consistently underwhelms when defensive coordinators have had weeks to prepare and the margin for error disappearsCompare that to the quarterbacks Allen is supposedly in the same tier with. Patrick Mahomes owns a 105.8 playoff passer rating across 17 games, with three Super Bowl rings to show for it. Joe Burrow, despite fewer playoff appearances, has maintained his elite accuracy under pressure. Allen? He becomes a different, lesser quarterback when January arrives.

Perhaps most telling is what these numbers reveal about Allen’s fundamental quarterbacking. Elite quarterbacks tend to elevate their performance in the playoffs. Brady, Manning, Rodgers all saw their accuracy and decision-making sharpen under pressure. Allen’s significant statistical decline suggests he’s not processing the game at the elite level, but rather relying on physical tools that become less effective against playoff-caliber teams.

Buffalo fans won’t want to hear this. There is no denying that Josh Allen is a talented quarterback. But elite? No, the stats say otherwise. Unless Allen can step up on the big stage and get the Bills over the hump to a Super Bowl title (or two), he does not belong in that tier.

Dan Brown

Dan Brown

(Aspiring NFL Writer | Children’s Author | Chicago Bears Devotee in Chiefs Territory)

 

A career-changing journey has led me to pursue a passion for NFL writing, fueled by decades of unwavering devotion to the Chicago Bears. I am focused on crafting compelling NFL content. Drawing on a unique skill set honed from self-publishing three children’s picture books, this Chicago native, now residing in the heart of Chiefs Kingdom in SE Kansas, offers a unique viewpoint on the NFL landscape, combining a deep understanding of Bears history with a front-row seat to the modern dominance of the Chiefs. With a background as a retired cook and an Associate Degree in Culinary Arts, the transition to writing has been a natural progression, providing a fulfilling outlet for a passion that has always been expressed best on paper. Eager to contribute engaging and insightful NFL articles to a wider audience,  I am seeking opportunities to leverage this blend of lifelong fandom, creative writing experience, and dedication to the craft.