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NFL 2023: Which teams have the best shot at winning?

AARON RODGERS IS TOO SENSITIVE FOR NEW YORK
NFL 2023: Which teams have the best shot at winning?

The National Football League’s (NFL) 104thseason is set to kick off on September 7th, 2023, with the reigning Super Bowl champions Kansas City going head-to-head with the Detroit Lions in a highly anticipated kick-off game. Of course, the question on every NFL fan’s mind is which teams are most likely to win this season? 

For sportsbooks, fans and bettors, the work starts now trying to calculate the odds to determine who is most likely to come out on top this year. This involves analyzing NFL stats as well as college football standings to make accurate predictions on who to back. We’ve got our own thoughts on who may reign supreme this year, so if you’re interested in figuring out which team is a safe bet, read on for our predictions. 

Using the ESPN FPI to inform predictions

ESPN has formulated a Football Power Index, referred to as the FPI, which they use as a projection model for NFL outcomes. The model’s preseason ratings are heavily influenced by Caesars Sportsbook win totals, strength of schedule and past performance, as well as returning starters. The projections are updated every day during the season by simulating the season thousands of times using team ratings. Several other factors affect game predictions, including travel and quarterback changes.

Chiefs predicted to continue their reign

After racing to victory as the 2022 season’s Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs are in a good position to maintain their hold on the top spot. They led with a wide margin last season and are bringing back two star players for the 2023 season, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Having two of the greatest football stars of the moment back on the team is enough to have us believe they’ll be storming to success again this year. 

Buffalo Bills and Eagles will fight it out for second place

Last season, the Bills and Eagles both had strong offensives, earning them their respective ranks at second and third. While their current odds are neck-in-neck, they are on pretty even footing when it comes to who has the best chance at nabbing the coveted second place in this year’s NFL. 

Detroit Lions odds are looking up

Despite ranking at fourth, a weak defense pushes Detroit into the 11th spot in the FPI. There is still a lot of positive buzz around the team, and their odds to make the playoffs are sitting at 65% with a 4% chance of winning the Super Bowl. They have a strong offense in their quarterback, Jared Goff, which is largely why they are predicted to perform well this season. 

Aaron Rodgers improves Jets odds

Now that the Green Bay Packers have traded their star quarterback Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets, the Jets now have a chance of 4% to win the Super Bowl. This is the first time ever that their odds have been over 1%. Their odds of winning the league overall sit at an impressive 25%. Whether having Rodgers as their new QB can improve those odds remains to be seen. With one of the toughest NFL schedules of the season, only three of their scheduled matches will take place onhome grounds, making for a lot of travel and potentially worn-out players. 

Patriots face their toughest schedule yet

There is no doubt that assessing schedule strength based on the previous season’s win percentage is inconsistent. The FPI looks at opponents based on their forecasted strength instead, giving us a much better picture of schedule strength. In terms of schedule difficulty, the Patriots have the toughest schedule by far.

They are set to go up against three teams in the top nine of the FPI rankings, not once but twice. This is expected to set them back significantly in their efforts to win the AFC East with a prediction they’ll come in at last place in the division.  

Final thoughts 

With a few shake-ups to the NFL, such as Aaron Rogers‘ move, the retirement of Tom Brady and some tough schedules for some of the most formidable teams, the 2023 NFL season is set to be a nail-biting affair for fans and sportsbooks alike. Predictions will shift as the pre-season progresses, so it will be interesting to see how far off we are with our guesses. 

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