Will Three QBs Be Off the Draft Board within the First Five Picks?

The top of the 2023 NFL Draft is quarterback top heavy and most US sportsbooks have NFL odds today with a quarterback as the top pick. Two leading books have three signal callers with the top five odds to be taken #1. You would think that the main reason for that is the talent at the position. While that is some of the reason, I would venture to say that the main reason is that many teams picking near the top of the draft need a QB. 

The Desperate Teams

Of the teams that have the first pick of the draft, five of them are very much in need of a quarterback. The team picking first is the Bears and they don’t need a QB with Justin Fields proving this season he deserves another chance to be the starter. 

The Cardinals pick third and they have what may be a lame-duck contract with Kyler Murray but he is undoubtedly still their starter. The Seahawks and Lions are most likely not in the mix with Geno Smith and Jared Goff each having resurgent seasons. The Eagles have the 10th pick and their starter, Jalen Hurts, didn’t do much this season except lead the team to the Super Bowl. 

Here are the teams in the top 10 that need a QB: 

• Houston Texans (2nd pick) – The Texans have the second pick and they have gotten poor QB play since Deshaun Watson left Lone Star State. David Mills is obviously not the answer. 

• Indianapolis Colts (4th pick) – It has been a revolving door of quarterbacks for a while in Indy since Andrew Luck retired. The team has brought in three veteran QBs in the last three seasons (Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan) and it is time for them to bring some young blood in under center. 

• Las Vegas Raiders (7th pick) – Derek Carr is gone and Tom Brady is retired, or so he says, and while he has shown some flashes, I wouldn’t write in Jarrett Stidham to be the Week 1 starter when September arrives. 

• Atlanta Falcons (8th pick) – The Marcus Mariota experiment failed pretty badly last season and Desmond Ridder and Logan Woodside are the only others on the roster. Ridder played in four games last season and was not picked off but only had two TD and it would be a surprise if he wins the starting job. 

• Carolina Panthers (9th pick) – Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. Need I say more?

Other teams that are picking in the top 10 that could use a signal caller are the Titans (#11), Jets (#13), Commanders (#16), and Buccaneers (#19). There are plenty of trades that can happen, but will any team give up a lot to move up with a draft that has QB talent but no surefire #1 pick? 

The Players

In looking at two solid online sportsbooks in BetMGM and BetRivers they have Bryce Young with the best odds to be the #1 pick, with C.J. Stroud having the second-best odds, and Will Levis having the fifth-best odds. With that rationale, it looks as if the books believe the Bears are going to ship their #1 pick. 

Draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. puts Stroud as being the first QB taken followed by Young, and Levis. Draft expert at NFL.com Eric Edholm sees Young being the first QB taken followed by Levis, and Stroud. A lot of uncertainty revolves around the draft and what teams will or won’t do before the top pick is announced on April 27th.