The NFL Draft Outlook: The Race for the First Overall Pick

Three teams are in a realistic position to earn the first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft: the Chargers, Dolphins, Titans, and Jets (via the Colts).

The Chargers stand as the only winless team, sitting at 0-7 in one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. If they ended up with the first pick, it is likely they would trade back to acquire more draft capital or select generational talent Jeremiah Smith to finally give Justin Herbert the weapon he deserves. Questions will also arise about Jim Harbaugh’s future and whether the Chargers could potentially move on from him.

Next are the Titans, who nearly completed an upset against the Bengals in overtime last week. Cam Ward had his best game of the season, throwing for 304 yards and two touchdowns while leading Tennessee to 36 points. Despite Ward’s struggles this season, it seems unlikely that the organization will give up on him this early in his career. The Titans are clearly entering a full rebuild after trading star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and acquiring an additional first-round pick. With the team focused on rebuilding, Tennessee could use that pick to find its next defensive star, with prospects such as Colin Simmons, Dylan Stewart, or Leonard Moore as potential options. Alternatively, the Titans could give Ward another weapon by selecting wide receiver Jeremiah Smith with the first overall pick.

Last are the Dolphins, who arguably have the greatest need for a quarterback among these three teams. Two potential options are Darian Mensah out of Miami and Drew Mestemaker out of Oklahoma State. Mensah has thrown for 25 touchdowns and just one interception, leading Miami to the No. 1 ranking in the country and establishing himself as a Heisman Trophy favorite. As for Mestemaker, he shows flashes of Josh Allen with his arm strength, accuracy, and playmaking ability. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he also has an impressive frame. Oklahoma State sits at 5-3 but is averaging 41.1 points per game, the third-highest mark in the country behind North Texas and Miami. Being the most explosive part of that high powered offense, Mestemaker has thrown for 2600 yards, 25 touchdowns with 7 interceptions.

For the Dolphins, both quarterbacks could be options, whether they select him first, second, or third overall. Malik Willis has yet to establish himself as the answer at quarterback and could possibly serve as a bridge quarterback for another year. However, the bigger question may be whether Miami has a strong enough supporting cast to help a rookie quarterback succeed.