Does NFL Combine Results Predict Success?

Each February, NFL prospects head to Indianapolis for the annual NFL Scouting Combine. It is a week filled with timed sprints, vertical leaps, bench presses, and on-field drills. Coaches, scouts, and analysts pay close attention to every movement, hoping to find the next breakout star. But one question always follows the event:

Do Combine results predict success in the NFL?

Sometimes they do. But often, the answer depends on the player’s position, how well their traits translate to the field, and whether teams prioritize tape over testing.

The Role of Speed: Helpful, Not Definitive

The 40-yard dash is the most high-profile drill at the Combine. A blazing time can turn a mid-round prospect into a first-round pick. However, speed alone does not guarantee production.

According to Pro Football Reference, wide receivers who ran under 4.40 from 2013 to 2022 averaged just 0.1 more receiving yards per game than those who ran between 4.40 and 4.55. The difference is minimal.

Players like Cooper Kupp, who ran a 4.62, and Keenan Allen, who ran a 4.71, have proven that football IQ, route running, and hands are often more important than raw speed.

On the defensive side, speed plays a bigger role. Cornerbacks who ran under 4.45 were 56.4 percent more likely to become full-time starters within two seasons, according to the SIS Data Hub.

Quote:
“Speed is a trait, not a skill. If you cannot apply it on the field, it does not matter.” — Greg Cosell, NFL Films

Agility Metrics Are More Predictive Than Speed

Agility drills such as the three-cone drill and short shuttle show stronger correlations with success than the 40-yard dash, especially for skill players and edge rushers.

A 2021 study from the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective found that wide receivers and edge rushers with top-20 percent agility scores were twice as likely to record a 1,000-yard season or a 10-sack season within three years.

Position	Most Predictive Drill(s)	Least Predictive Drill
Wide Receiver	Three-Cone, Broad Jump	Bench Press
Cornerback	Forty-Yard Dash, Ten-Yard Split	Vertical Jump
Edge Rusher	Three-Cone, Short Shuttle	Bench Press
Running Back	Ten-Yard Split, Vertical	Full Forty-Yard Dash
Offensive Line	Three-Cone, Short Shuttle	Full Forty-Yard Dash
Quarterback	None consistently predictive	All drills rely on film

Agility matters most for positions that involve quick directional changes. These include slot receivers, linebackers, and pass rushers.

The Bench Press is Overrated

The bench press is designed to test upper body strength. It can show effort and work ethic, but the numbers do not often translate to NFL production.

Since 2010, only three of the top twenty bench press performers became long-term starters. That includes players like Dontari Poe and Stephen Paea, who showed rare power but did not develop into stars.

On the other hand, All-Pro linemen such as Zack Martin and Joe Thuney posted average reps between 25 and 28. In reality, hand placement, footwork, and leverage are more important than how many times a player can lift 225 pounds.

Workout Warriors vs. Tape Titans

Every year, the Combine produces “workout warriors” — players who impress in testing but struggle on Sundays. At the same time, others prove that what matters most is what they show on film.

Notable Workout Warriors Who Disappointed:

• Dri Archer ran a 4.26 and had a 38-inch vertical. He finished with only 246 career yards.
  
• Margus Hunt recorded 38 bench reps and ran a 4.60 at 6-foot-8. He finished his career with just five sacks through seven seasons.
  
• Mike Mamula trained specifically for Combine drills, earning a first-round pick, but never reached expectations.
  

Successful Players Who Tested Poorly:

• Tom Brady ran a 5.28 and posted a 24.5-inch vertical. He won seven Super Bowls.
  
• Anquan Boldin ran a 4.71 but had over 1,000 yards as a rookie and became a Pro Bowler.
  
• Terrell Suggs tested poorly in agility drills but recorded 139 career sacks.

Quote:
“The tape tells you who they are. The Combine tells you what they might become.” — Louis Riddick, ESPN

Where the Combine Helps Most

The Combine is not meant to replace film evaluation. It is a tool for teams to confirm what they have already seen or raise concerns when results do not match expectations.

The Combine is most useful when:

• A player’s explosiveness or agility does not align with what shows up on film.
  
• Medical evaluations uncover injuries that were not disclosed.
  
• Teams need to verify a player’s measurable traits such as arm length, hand size, or weight.
  
• They are evaluating tools-based prospects who need development but show athletic upside.

The Role of Relative Athletic Score (RAS)

Relative Athletic Score, or RAS, is a composite metric used to score players from zero to ten based on their athletic testing relative to others at their position.

Players with a RAS above 9.0 are considered elite athletes.

In recent years, over 70 percent of players drafted in the top 100 had RAS scores above 8.0, according to RelativeAthleticScores.com.

RAS gives context. A 4.55 forty-yard dash for a 215-pound running back might be more impressive than a 4.42 for a 175-pound wide receiver. RAS helps teams compare apples to apples.

Conclusion: Traits Help, but Tape Tells the Truth

The NFL Combine is valuable when used correctly. It helps confirm tape, reveal potential, and uncover limitations. But it should never outweigh what a player has shown during actual games.

For every athletic standout who becomes a star, there is a Hall of Famer who tested like a backup. The teams that consistently draft well know how to use the Combine as one tool among many.

Numbers matter. But context matters more.