The Easiest and Toughest NFL Schedules this Season
The countdown to the start of the new NFL season is now measured in days and weeks rather than months. Fans of various teams will be plotting their route to the Playoffs, which is easier said than done, of course. That said, some teams do get it easier than others, at least in theory.
Working out the relative strength of schedules is not always easy, particularly if there is too much focus on what happened last season. Teams can – and already have – strengthen in the offseason, so it might be worthwhile cross-referencing with NFL lines from sportsbooks for a current analysis.
Nonetheless, the schedule does matter. Consider that 10 of the 15 teams with the easiest schedules in 2023 eventually made the Playoffs. Another study showed that only 4 out of the 17 teams ranked with the toughest schedules made it to the Playoffs in the same season.
So, with the caveat that the schedule can help but isn’t everything, let’s look at the teams with the easiest and hardest runs this season.
New Orleans Saints
Opponents’ Win Percentage Last Season: .453
The Saints will benefit from playing in the relatively weak NFC South, where they face teams with lower overall win percentages. Additionally, their schedule includes matchups against teams like the Broncos, Raiders, and Commanders, who had poor performances in 2023. Some of those teams might improve, but this looks like a decent schedule for New Orleans.
Atlanta Falcons
Opponents’ Win Percentage: .453
The Falcons’ schedule is very similar to that of the Saints, so it’s no surprise to see them ranked with the Saints with the easiest schedule. The Falcons are the hot favorites to win the NFC South, and it’s a job made a lot easier with games against predicted strugglers like the Giants, Commanders, and Titans. The Falcons’ run-in across December and early January looks particularly favorable.
Chicago Bears
Opponents’ Win Percentage: .467
Whisper it, but some are predicting that the Bears will have a very good season. There are the big 2024 draft picks to consider, sure, but there are also other smart pieces being added and a generous schedule will aid the Bears’ cause. The Patriots, Cardinals, and Panthers are among the weaker teams that Chicago fans will see as
Other teams with easier schedules include the Carolina Panthers (Opponents’ Win Percentage: .467, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (.478), Seattle Seahawks (.488), Miami Dolphins (.488), and Indianapolis Colts (.491).
Teams with tougher schedules
As with the easier schedules, tougher schedules can be a matter of perception. Moreover, it is possible that teams will regress in the offseason. Nonetheless, it is clear the metrics point toward AFC North teams having particularly tough – as this is the strongest division in the NFL, on paper anyway.
Cleveland Browns
Opponents’ Win Percentage: .547
The Browns seemingly have the toughest schedule in all ofthe NFL, facing several opponents that performed well last season, particularly some AFC North rivals. The Browns went 11-6 last season, getting out of a division where everyone went over .500. They’ll also have games against predicted challengers like the Chiefs and Cowboys.
Baltimore Ravens
Opponents’ Win Percentage: .536
Getting out of the AFC North will be tough in 2024, but the Ravens look like Super Bowl contenders. Their schedule ranks second in difficulty, with a big matchup against theChiefs and Eagles, as well as the other teams from the super-strong AFC North.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Opponents’ Win Percentage: .533
Pittsburgh’s schedule is the third hardest, with opponents’ combined win percentage at .533. They will go up against the 49ers, Seahawks, and Jaguars in the regular season. They are ranked as the least likely to win the AFC North, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t a decent team.
Other teams with tough schedules include the Green Bay Packers (Opponents’ Win Percentage: .526), Houston Texans (.526), Buffalo Bills (.516), and New York Giants (.516).
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