How Soccer Prediction Markets Work: A Practical Guide

NFL fans are used to games with a winner. Soccer adds a third result, the draw, and that one difference changes how every match-result contract is written, priced and settled.

Soccer prediction markets let you take a position on yes-or-no questions about a match, such as whether a club wins. This guide explains how those contracts work, how draws affect them and what a trade costs on Fanatics Markets, with fees and availability checked in October 2026.

Key Takeaways

• A soccer event contract settles at $1.00 if its answer is correct and at $0 if it is not.
• Fanatics Markets lists the draw as its own Tie outcome on every match card, beside the two clubs.
• A contract price, such as 60 cents, reflects the market’s current estimate, not a certain result.
• Fanatics Markets charges $0.02 per contract at mid-range prices, on each purchase and each sale.
• Fanatics Markets is open to users 21 and older in 22 states and four U.S. territories.

How a Soccer Event Contract Works

Every event contract asks one question with a yes-or-no answer, such as whether a named club wins a named match. You buy YES if you think the answer will be yes, or NO if you think it will be no.

When the event resolves, a contract on the correct answer settles at $1.00 and every other contract settles at $0. Its price before then sits between those two values and moves as people trade.

Reading the price. A YES price of 60 cents means the market currently values that outcome at roughly 60%. The CFTC describes contract prices as reflecting traders’ perceived probability of an outcome, which is an estimate rather than a certainty. Soccer much like the 2026 NFL mock draft, is a forecast of what will happen, and forecasts can miss.

If you already know American odds, the conversion is simple. A team at -150 implies 60% (150 divided by 250), the same level as a 60-cent contract.

Selling before the match ends. You can sell a position early while trading is open, as long as a buyer accepts your price. Availability and liquidity can change during a match, so plan for the possibility of holding a contract until it settles.

How the Draw Changes the Question

An NFL matchup usually has two possible winners. A soccer match result has three: a home win, a draw and an away win. Each is a separate question with its own price.

What YES and NO cover. Take a contract asking whether Team A wins. YES pays only if Team A wins. NO pays if Team A does not win, which covers both a draw and a Team B win.

That makes NO on Team A different from YES on Team B. The first covers two results, while the second covers one, so their prices usually differ.

Why the three prices rarely add to 100%. The three outcomes of one match can add up to slightly more than 100%. Treat each figure as the quoted price for that outcome, not a precise probability.

When the result is measured. Many match-result contracts measure the score after regulation plus stoppage time, the minutes the referee adds to each half. In knockout matches, extra time or a penalty shootout can decide which club advances. Check whether a contract settles on the match score or on which club advances, since those can be different answers.

Reading a Soccer Match Card on Fanatics Markets

Fanatics Markets lays out the draw in plain view. On its soccer betting odds page, every match card shows the home club, a Tie and the away club side by side, so the three-result structure is clear before you look at a price.

The page covers a wide range of competitions, including the EPL, MLS, Champions League, Europa League, LaLiga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Liga MX, England’s Championship and the FA Cup. Contracts are grouped into Game Lines, Player Props and Futures tabs, and each match lists Moneyline, Spread and Total markets with its start time.

What the numbers show. Each outcome appears as a percentage, along with the payout on a $100 position before fees. An outcome quoted at 40% shows a payout of $250, which is $100 divided by the 40-cent price.

Where to find the rules. The footer of every Fanatics Markets page links to the contract details for sports contracts. Before you trade, check the exact question, the source used to confirm the result, the time window and how a postponed or abandoned match is handled.

What a Soccer Trade Costs

The price of the contracts is only part of the cost. Trading fees and funding charges also count.

Trading fees. Fanatics Markets publishes a fee table effective September 2, 2026. The fee runs from $0.00034 to $0.02 per contract, with $0.02 applying to contracts priced from $0.20 to $0.80. It is charged on each contract bought and each contract sold, and the order total rounds up to the next whole cent.

Funding. ACH deposits are free. Debit card, Apple Pay, PayPal and Venmo deposits may carry a fee of up to 2%, and withdrawals to your payment methods carry no fee.

A worked example at 60 cents

1. Buy: 10 YES contracts at $0.60 cost $6.00. The fee is $0.02 per contract, or $0.20, for a total outlay of $6.20.
2. Correct outcome: The contracts settle at $1.00 each, for $10.00. After the $6.20 outlay, the result is a $3.80 gain before taxes.
3. Incorrect outcome: The contracts settle at $0, and the full $6.20 is lost.
4. Early sale: If the price rises to $0.70 and a buyer takes all 10 contracts, the sale brings $7.00. A second $0.20 fee leaves $6.80, a $0.60 gain on the outlay.

The contract price here is hypothetical, while the fee is Fanatics Markets’ published rate at that price. If an order fills at a different price, the fee is recalculated on the price actually executed.

Order Tools and Combos

Fanatics Markets added limit orders on September 1, 2026, alongside the price tolerance setting introduced in July. A limit order fills only at your chosen price or better, which helps when prices move fast after an early goal or a red card.

A limit order can also stay unfilled if no matching order appears. Check your order status after placing it so you know whether you hold a position.

Fanatics Markets also offers Combos, which bundle several contracts into one order. Combo prices come through a request-for-quote process, where liquidity providers respond with executable quotes, and Combo orders carry a maximum payout of $10,000. Read how a Combo settles before you place it.

How to Compare Fanatics Markets With Other Apps

Several U.S. apps list sports event contracts, including Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts. A fair comparison starts with the same question on each app, then moves to price, fees and access.

What to check	Fanatics Markets	Why it matters
Draw handling	Tie listed as its own outcome on each match card	Shows whether a draw is a separate question
Fee at a 60-cent price	$0.02 per contract, on each buy and sell	Sets the cost of a typical mid-range trade
Order controls	Market orders, limit orders and price tolerance	Decides how much control you have over your entry price
Platforms	iOS, Android and web	Affects where you can follow and trade a match
Age and access	21+, in 22 states and four U.S. territories	Decides whether you can open an account

Access rules differ from app to app. DraftKings Predictions, for example, sets an 18+ minimum, or higher where the local age of majority is higher. FanDuel Predicts launched on December 22, 2025 with CME Group in five states before a phased national rollout.

If two apps define a soccer question differently, such as one settling on the match score and another on which club advances, their prices are not directly comparable.

Access, Age and Risk Tools

Fanatics Markets is available to users 21 and older in 22 states, including California, Texas and Florida, plus four U.S. territories. Check the availability page for your location before you fund an account.

Existing Fanatics customers can sign in with their Fanatics ONE login, and eligible trades can earn FanCash under the Fanatics ONE program terms. Since September 2, 2026, Markets has also run inside the Fanatics Sports & Casino app, with its own cash balance kept separate from other Fanatics products.

For budgeting, Fanatics Markets keeps its responsible-trading settings under Account → Risk Management. These include deposit limits and the option to take a break, and they work best when set before your first trade.

Is Fanatics Markets the Right Fit for Soccer?

Fanatics Markets suits eligible fans who want the draw shown as a clear Tie outcome, a published per-contract fee table and coverage of major leagues from the EPL to MLS. Limit orders, web access and a single Fanatics ONE login add practical control for anyone who already uses Fanatics products.

Before any trade, confirm what the contract measures and when it settles, then work out your total outlay with the fee included. Only trade money you can afford to lose in full, and set your limits before you start.

FAQ

What happens to a match-result contract if the game ends in a draw? On Fanatics Markets, the Tie is its own outcome. YES on Tie settles at $1.00, while YES on either club settles at $0.

Does buying NO on one club cover a draw? Yes. NO on Team A pays if Team A does not win, which includes a draw and a Team B win.

Do extra time and penalties count? It depends on the contract. Check whether it settles on the score after regulation and stoppage time or on which club advances.

How much does a soccer contract cost to trade on Fanatics Markets? The fee is up to $0.02 per contract on each purchase and sale, with $0.02 applying from $0.20 to $0.80. ACH deposits are free.

Who can use Fanatics Markets? Users 21 and older located in one of 22 states or four U.S. territories.