Why Preseason Darlings Always Disappoint: The Psychology of NFL Hype

Every August, the same ritual plays out across America. Pundits crown their consensus Super Bowl favorites, fans buy into the hype, and betting markets shift millions of dollars toward the “obvious” contenders. Then September arrives, and reality delivers its annual reality check.

The 2024 NFL season provided a masterclass in why preseason consensus picks consistently crumble under the weight of expectation. The teams that dominated August headlines—the Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, and even the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs—either underwhelmed or faced unexpected adversity, while surprise contenders like the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders emerged from relative obscurity.

But this isn’t just about bad predictions. It’s about understanding the psychological and structural forces that make preseason darlings particularly vulnerable to disappointment.

The Consensus Trap of 2024

The defending champion Chiefs were atop the Super Bowl 58 odds at 6-1, with the Eagles (15-2), Niners (9-1) and Bills (9-1) also getting single-digit 2024 Super Bowl futures. The Ravens, coming off a dominant regular season, were universally praised for adding Derrick Henry. The Cowboys were expected to rebound from their playoff disappointment. The 49ers remained the betting favorites for much of the preseason.

What happened? The Ravens struggled with consistency despite Lamar Jackson’s excellence. The Cowboys imploded spectacularly, missing the playoffs entirely. The 49ers dealt with injuries that exposed their depth issues. Even the mighty Chiefs, while successful, looked more vulnerable than their preseason billing suggested.

Meanwhile, teams like the Vikings (who weren’t expected to contend after losing Kirk Cousins) and the Commanders (written off as rebuilding) surged past expectations.

The Four Pillars of Preseason Failure

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1. The Weight of Expectations

When everyone expects greatness, the margin for error becomes increasingly narrow. Preseason darlings face scrutiny that other teams avoid. A slow start for the Cowboys becomes a crisis; the same record for the Cardinals is “expected growing pains.” This creates internal pressure that manifests in conservative coaching, tight player performances, and a snowball effect when things go wrong.

The Ravens exemplified this in 2024. After being crowned by many as the AFC’s best team, every loss became magnified, every offensive struggle became a referendum on Lamar Jackson’s playoff capabilities. The pressure to live up to external expectations created internal tension that showed up in crucial moments.

2. The Target Effect

Success breeds attention, and attention breeds adjustment. When you’re a consensus favorite, every opponent circles your games on their calendar. They study your film religiously. They game-plan specifically for you. Meanwhile, you’re trying to prepare for 17 different opponents with varying levels of motivation to beat you.

The 2024 Cowboys learned this lesson brutally. After years of regular season success followed by playoff disappointment, teams came at Dallas with playoff-level intensity from Week 1. Every opponent treated Cowboys games like their Super Bowl, while Dallas seemed to expect teams to roll over for their “superior talent.”

3. The Innovation Lag

Preseason predictions often rely too heavily on previous season performance, assuming linear progression. But the NFL’s competitive balance means that while everyone else is improving and innovating, consensus favorites often become comfortable with their existing systems.

Look at the 49ers in 2024. Their offensive system, once revolutionary, became predictable as other teams learned to defend it and copied its best elements. Meanwhile, teams like the Commanders were installing fresh systems that opponents hadn’t seen enough of to effectively counter.

4. The Depth Delusion

Consensus picks frequently overestimate roster depth based on star power. Analysts see elite starters and assume quality throughout the roster. But NFL seasons are wars of attrition, and depth gets exposed quickly.

This manifested clearly with several 2024 favorites. Injuries to key players revealed depth issues that weren’t apparent when evaluating healthy rosters in August. The teams that exceeded expectations often had better organizational depth—not necessarily more talented players, but better system players who could maintain effectiveness when thrust into larger roles.

The Contrarian Advantage

Understanding why consensus picks fail reveals why contrarian selections often succeed. Teams flying under the radar benefit from:

• Lower expectations creating a looser, more aggressive playing style
• Less opponent preparation as teams focus their best game plans on the “dangerous” opponents
• Hunger and motivation from being overlooked or disrespected
• System innovation as new coaches or schemes haven’t been fully figured out yet
• Addition by subtraction where losing a disruptive veteran actually improves team chemistry

The 2024 Commanders perfectly illustrated this dynamic. With new ownership, coaching staff, and a rookie quarterback, expectations were minimal. This allowed them to play loose, take risks, and benefit from opponents who spent more time preparing for “scarier” matchups.

Looking Ahead: The 2025 Trap

As we head into the 2025 season, the same patterns are already emerging. The Philadelphia Eagles blew out the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl 59. As noted above, Philly opened as the favorite in Super Bowl 60 odds, at +650, making them an early consensus choice.

The danger signs are already flashing. The Eagles will face the target effect, with every team bringing their absolute best shot. They’ll deal with the weight of defending a championship while trying to repeat—something that has proven historically difficult. And they’ll face the innovation lag as opponents spend the entire offseason studying their Super Bowl film.

The Takeaway

This isn’t to say consensus picks always fail—sometimes the best team really is the best team. However, the psychological and structural factors that create consensus favorites also create unique vulnerabilities, making them statistically poor bets relative to their odds.

The smart money recognizes that in a league designed for parity, being everyone’s favorite is often a disadvantage disguised as an honor. The teams that surprise us aren’t usually the most talented—they’re the ones best positioned to exceed expectations while their “superior” competitors buckle under the weight of their own hype.

Remember, in the NFL, it’s not about who looks best in August—it’s about who handles the pressure best when the lights come on.