The NCAA Transfer Portal: Opportunity for Players or Chaos for Teams?

The NCAA transfer portal was launched in 2018 and has become a game-changer for college football in just a few years. More than 20,000 players registered with the system in the 2023-2024 season, and in December – during the winter transfer window – several hundred names were added to the database every day. For comparison, ten years ago, athletes were tied to their universities, and transferring required a one-year ‘waiting period.’ Today, a student can change teams in a few clicks and join a new team in a matter of weeks.

Interestingly, the transfer portal is being discussed not only within the NCAA, but also beyond it as a pure market model. The decisions of players within the system resemble the random mechanisms of the Plinko online game: dozens of factors determine the trajectory – the size of NIL contracts, positional competition, injuries, interest from coaches. The only difference is that here it is not virtual points that are at stake, but sports careers and the results of entire programmes.

How Does the Transfer Portal Work?

The portal was launched on 15 October 2018. It was not created for show, but to clarify and simplify the transition of student athletes from one university to another after they announced their intention to leave.

It used to be much more complicated. Athletes had to sit out a year before playing for a new team. In 2021, a rule was introduced allowing one free transfer without a pause, and from 2024, unlimited transfers will be allowed provided that academic performance is maintained.

Who Gets Into the System and How

The process is fairly simple but strictly regulated:

• The player informs the responsible person of their desire to leave the team;
• The educational institution has 48 hours to enter the student’s name into the portal;
• After the database is updated, any NCAA (DI–III) coach can see them and express interest in the offer (or the student can initiate the search for a new place themselves).

Getting into the system seems simple, but each action triggers a complex evaluation process. Coaches review profiles, look for the right positions, and analyse academic performance. Here, a parallel can be drawn with the Plinko game online, not in terms of randomness, but in that each step leads to a specific outcome — the trajectory may vary, but the result depends on a combination of factors: demand for the position, the athlete’s statistics, and the time of registration in the system.

Deadlines and Rules for Submission

Everything happens within strictly defined time frames, just like in stock market trading with a specific schedule:

• Football (DI). There are two windows: winter from 9 to 28 December 2024 and spring from 16 to 25 April 2025.
• Basketball. For men, the window is open from 24 March to 22 April 2025, and for women, from 25 March to 23 April.

However, there are exceptions. If there is a change of head coach, a 30-day window opens from the date of the announcement. Athletes who have lost their scholarships or been affected by the closure of a programme can enter the portal at any time.

Statistics

During the last transfer cycle, more than 3,400 FBS players registered on the portal.

In 2023-24, the number of athletes who applied increased from 1,946 to 2,707. Overall, the number of participants across all divisions exceeded 11,000.

In 2025, 2,320 basketball players who expressed their desire to change clubs entered the transfer portal. This is a record figure. Together with women’s basketball, the number of participants reached almost 4,000, which is 11% more than last season.

The statistics show an increase in demand for the system’s services, but at the same time, they reveal the chaotic nature of player transfers. This is a difficult market for coaches, which simultaneously opens and closes dozens of opportunities. The situation is somewhat similar to the Plinko game: the course of each player’s movement depends on a multitude of obstacles and random factors, but the outcome is determined by the demand for their position and the programme’s willingness to offer a place in the team.

Opportunities for Players

The transfer portal is often presented as a threat to stability, but for athletes, it opens up real prospects. And we are not just talking about changing teams for the sake of status, but about the opportunity to rewrite your own career.

Playing Time

Many players end up on the portal after spending one or two seasons on the bench. In large programmes, competition is so fierce that even talented athletes can wait years to get on the field.

Transferring to a lower-level university often means instant playing time, more snaps and improved statistics. 

For example, quarterback Michael Penick immediately got playing time after leaving Indiana for Washington and quickly became one of the country’s leaders in passing yards.

Exiting Unsuccessful Programs

The portal serves as an exit for those who find themselves in the wrong environment due to a coaching change, failed recruitment or a toxic atmosphere within the team. The chance to transfer without a year-long break allows students to stay in shape and continue playing without downtime. For many, it is an opportunity to maintain their health and psychological stability, which is important given the constant pressure.

Success Stories

In recent years, there have been many examples of transfers that have radically changed the fate of athletes. Joe Burrow left Ohio State for LSU and won the Heisman Trophy and a national title in one season. Jalen Hurts had an outstanding season after transferring from Alabama to Oklahoma and later became a starter in the NFL. There are more and more cases like these, and they are encouraging young athletes to use the portal.

At the same time, the player’s choice cannot be called chaotic. It’s more like Plinko: each ‘bounce’ is a new factor that influences the final trajectory. Statistics, interest from coaches, financial opportunities, and roster position determine the direction of movement until the athlete finds a program that is ready to give him or her the most.