How the Buffalo Bills can upset Kansas City

By: Shaun DePasquale (@ShaunDoesDraft)

When the Kansas City Chiefs roll into Buffalo on Sunday afternoon, most will expect a clean Chiefs victory. The Bills are in complete QB flux, likely to finally be forced to start undrafted rookie QB Jeff Tuel with both E.J. Manuel and sub Thad Lewis out of practice. But the Bills can pull the upset. And here’s how.


Did you know that for all Kansas City’s pass rushing prowess, and despite their play-making secondary, the Chiefs are 19th in total rushing defense? They are allowing an average of 103 yards per game, and nearly 5 yards per rush. Chink in the armor? Possibly. On the flipside, Buffalo comes in boasting the 4th best rushing offense in the NFL. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller have a combined 787 yards and 7 touchdowns. As a unit, they average 134 yards rushing per game. Numbers-wise, this is a big advantage for Buffalo.


There is no doubt that Chiefs QB Alex Smith plays clean game-manager, limits turnovers, and RB Jamaal Charles is on fire. But due to the lack of fire in the passing game, Kansas City only sports the 16th-best total offense. They are heavily reliant on simplicity and safety from Smith, and big plays out of the running game. Buffalo has been a revolving door for opposing RB’s, 30th in total rushing defense. This is a big area of concern. But if DROY candidate Kiko Alonso and veteran Arthur Moats can steady the Chiefs running game, DE Mario Williams is simply a nightmarish thought for Smith. Williams has 11 sacks in 8 games, and Defensive Coordinator Mike Pettine would love nothing better than to see Smith forced to drop back and dodge Williams for 4 quarters with a stalled running game. Can the Bills defense muster that effort? That remains to be seen. Buffalo will possess the home-field advantage, and a clear path to offensive points through the running game. Keep an eye on this for an upset special.

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